Real Clear Politics Polls Summary & AVC conjecture.

Arkansas Senate - Thursday, December 03
	Baker vs. Lincoln	Rasmussen Reports	Baker 47, Lincoln 41	Baker +6
		Daily Kos/R2000	Baker 41, Lincoln 42	Lincoln +1
	Coleman vs. Lincoln	Rasmussen Reports	Lincoln 40, Coleman 44	Coleman +4
		Daily Kos/R2000	Lincoln 44, Coleman 39	Lincoln +5
	Cox vs. Lincoln	Rasmussen Reports	Lincoln 40, Cox 43	Cox +3
		Daily Kos/R2000	Lincoln 45, Cox 31	Lincoln +14
	Hendren vs. Lincoln	Rasmussen Reports	Lincoln 39, Hendren 46	Hendren +7
		Daily Kos/R2000	Lincoln 46, Hendren 30	Lincoln +16

  There is only one this wrong with these results, It is leaving out the #3 person in ranking from the Republican Party of Arkansas Straw Poll which is Col. Conrad Reynolds and several other announced candidates who are in this race also..  below is a full listing of hopefuls:

Blanche Lincoln (D)*	Andrew Drew Pritt (D)
Gilbert Baker (R)	Bill Halter (D) (undicided)
Curtis Coleman (R)
Conrad Reynolds (R)
Thomas F. Cox (R)
Fred Ramey (R)
Buddy Rogers (R)
Kim Hendren (R)
Edward Dale Frizzell (I)

* incumbent

But then with Lincoln's performance approval numbers continually dropping with every poll even amongst her Democratic supporters, it would stand to reason any opponent would appear more favorable than the incumbent.

ARKANSAS: A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds that Sen. Blanche Lincoln could face a tough primary against potential challenger Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. The poll found that Lincoln leads the lesser-known Halter by only 42% to 26%, and loses even more of that lead if she joins a Republican filibuster of the health care reform bill, the poll found, slipping to a 37% to 27% lead. 

November 19, 2009 - ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL
 Zeroing in on Arkansas, home of swing vote Senator Blanche Lincoln, a new poll by Zogby International finds deep opposition to the healthcare reform proposals pending in the Senate. 

In a telephone survey of 501 likely voters in Arkansas, conducted on November 16-17, 2009, voters reported opposing the healthcare changes with only 29% saying they backed it while 64% said they were opposed.  Fifty percent of likely voters indicated strong opposition to the plan while only 17% indicated strong support.
In an initial match-up of Lincoln and possible Republican candidate State Senator Gilbert Baker, the incumbent, Lincoln, holds a narrow 41-39 lead.  Against another possible GOP contender, State Senator Kim Hendren, Lincoln holds a more substantial 45-29 lead.
But when voters were asked how they would vote in a Lincoln-Baker race if Lincoln voted in favor of the healthcare legislation, the incumbent Democrat fell behind her possible GOP challenger 37-49.  In all, 48% of likely Arkansas voters said they would be less likely to back Lincoln's re-election if she supports the healthcare bill with 38% saying they were much less likely to support her in that event.
Voters currently indicated that they do not know how either Lincoln or Arkansas' other Senator Mark Pryor stand on the bill.  Asked if Lincoln supported the bill, 42% said she did, 24% said she did not and 34% were not sure.  As for Pryor, there was even less clarity with 35% reporting that he supported the legislation and 18% saying he opposed it.  Forty-seven percent said they were not sure of his position.
Opposition to the healthcare bill was significant - as noted, 64% of voters opposed the bill and 29% supported it - before voters heard anything about it in the survey.  After a brief outline of the pros and cons of the legislation, support for the bill moved to 26% and opposition moved to 68%.

From within the  State, the grapevine has is that even if the early polling is running in Baker's favor, he may well have problems in the Republican stronghold in Arkansas which is in the NW where it is estimated a full 1/3 of all Republican votes originate.  This Rumor states Baker while in the AR Senate, was in the center of a traditional controversy surrounding the denial of a Republican Senator's ascension to a committee chairmanship.. who is from NW Arkansas with a strong following,  now this is unconfirmed but if this is the case, also it is being discussed and bandied about that Baker's voting record in the AR legislature is more liberal that the Democrat opponent, Blanche Lincoln, well, to my experience, usually where there is smoke, a fire also springs up, maybe we ought to investigate the truth of these statements,  HHUUMM??
Arkansas people have long memories and are not always vocal about things of this nature but show up at the polling locations to voice their opinion...

People who are from without this state, are not familiar with this social behavior but I have observed this over many years, which has led to some very sudden surprises in the past.. we need to wait and see wha tthe outcome is from the total of votes on May 18.

I am reminding folks that early voting will start May 3 and if you are unable to be present at the polling place on the day of election, be sure to request an absentee ballot from your county clerk.  You can obtain the application by either calling the clerk's office or stopping by to pick up this form but these ballots must be received within a specified time frame listed on the application.

Straw Poll Results from RPA Conference
Sen Gilbert Baker	35%
Curtis Coleman	33%
Col. Conrad Reynolds	23%
Tom Cox	4%
Sen Kim Hendren	2%
Fred Ramey	2%
Buddy Rogers	1%

 

From this listing, it would appear from the results within the State, the outside polls are focusing on the wrong candidates.. 

Election Dates and Deadlines:

2010 Primary & Nonpartisan General Election

• March 1-8, 2010 Candidate Filing Period (noon till noon)
• April 18, 2010 Voter Registration Deadline
• May 18, 2010 Election Day (Primary)

2010 Primary Election Runoff

• May 9, 2010 Voter Registration Deadline
• June 8, 2010 Election Day

2010 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff

• October 3, 2010 Voter Registration Deadline
• November 2, 2010 Election Day

2010 General Election Runoff
(County & Municipal Races)

• October 24, 2010 Voter Registration Deadline
• November 23, 2010 Election Day

This data is what the old "spit and whittle" club would call food for thought,...