Jim Holt Has a Habit of Defying Polls
The story of my first campaign and the polls.
Be careful about putting stock in polls. They often guide in ways they shouldn't’t. We all tend to get excited when our person is in the lead as we have with two polls that have come out since Jim Holt entered the race for Senate. (Mason Dixon poll 1/20/2010, Jim Holt leading Lincoln by bigger margin than any others; Rasmussen poll 3/30/2010, Jim Holt leading Lincoln by bigger margin than any others.) We all tend to get despondent when our person is not in the lead. (We’ve not had one this election until today.) It’s just human nature, but be cautious about it.
Jim Holt has a habit of defying polls. For that matter, Arkansans have a habit of defying polls. Doesn’t anyone remember how shocked the pollsters were when Mike Huckabee began winning states in the primaries where the polls had showed quite another story.
But it seems not too many remember the election of 2004. It was my first time to really get involved with a campaign. I would get so excited at any good news. But then August 22, the first poll! I was so excited to see my first poll on the race into which I’d poured my soul. What an emotional dive! Lincoln was leading Holt. Lincoln 58%; Holt 34%. (All this can still be seen at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/ar_polls.html )
I’m a positive person. After the dive, I thought, "Well we’ve got our work cut out for us, but we’ve still got over two months to turn this around."
September 29th. Another new poll. We were gaining the ground, I thought we were! Lincoln 54%, Holt 40%. It was still tough, but we had actually gained a great deal of ground as polls go.
I was so excited to see the next poll. October 6. Lincoln 60%, Holt 32%. Oh no! But, on the other hand, there is a more reputable poll coming out October 11. We’ll wait for it.
I was devastated. October 11. Lincoln 60%, Holt 32%. The other poll was right. We’ve not only dropped 8% points last week, but we are 2% lower than where we were in August.
I determined to work harder than ever, as if the whole thing was up to me. I knew it wasn’t, but I wanted so much to help put someone in office that reflected my views, especially on the pro-life, pro-marriage issues.
We were getting weekly polls now. October 18. Lincoln 57%, Holt 38%. Great, we’re at least moving the right direction again. Is there any way we can get above the 50% mark. The pundits were saying it was time to give up. I don’t do that.
October 25, one week before the election. Surely we’ve made some more ground. Lincoln 57%, Holt 38%. The same as a week ago. No way in one week to turn this around, but I will continue to try.
38%! Election day. We didn’t win. I was discouraged, but when I saw 44+% of the vote, I was amazed. Up 6 percentage points in one week?
I learned much.
I will look at polls, but I will not be controlled by them.
When it comes to Jim Holt, the polls will not be accurate.
I will not give up.
I cannot do everything that even I want to do, but I will work hard until the last moment.
No other candidate is able to bring together the TEA party movement, those opposed to illegal immigration, those who support limited government, those who want us to live by our Constitution, those who are pro-life, pro-2nd amendment, and pro-marriage like Jim Holt can. No other candidate has withstood the pressures of lobbyists and party politics without giving in like Jim Holt. His record is evidence of what we’ll get.
Why would we choose anyone else? Jim Holt for U.S. Senate!
To this task. We can see victory. We must pray. We must trust. We must work
Jim Holt has a habit of defying polls. For that matter, Arkansans have a habit of defying polls. Doesn’t anyone remember how shocked the pollsters were when Mike Huckabee began winning states in the primaries where the polls had showed quite another story.
But it seems not too many remember the election of 2004. It was my first time to really get involved with a campaign. I would get so excited at any good news. But then August 22, the first poll! I was so excited to see my first poll on the race into which I’d poured my soul. What an emotional dive! Lincoln was leading Holt. Lincoln 58%; Holt 34%. (All this can still be seen at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/ar_polls.html )
I’m a positive person. After the dive, I thought, "Well we’ve got our work cut out for us, but we’ve still got over two months to turn this around."
September 29th. Another new poll. We were gaining the ground, I thought we were! Lincoln 54%, Holt 40%. It was still tough, but we had actually gained a great deal of ground as polls go.
I was so excited to see the next poll. October 6. Lincoln 60%, Holt 32%. Oh no! But, on the other hand, there is a more reputable poll coming out October 11. We’ll wait for it.
I was devastated. October 11. Lincoln 60%, Holt 32%. The other poll was right. We’ve not only dropped 8% points last week, but we are 2% lower than where we were in August.
I determined to work harder than ever, as if the whole thing was up to me. I knew it wasn’t, but I wanted so much to help put someone in office that reflected my views, especially on the pro-life, pro-marriage issues.
We were getting weekly polls now. October 18. Lincoln 57%, Holt 38%. Great, we’re at least moving the right direction again. Is there any way we can get above the 50% mark. The pundits were saying it was time to give up. I don’t do that.
October 25, one week before the election. Surely we’ve made some more ground. Lincoln 57%, Holt 38%. The same as a week ago. No way in one week to turn this around, but I will continue to try.
38%! Election day. We didn’t win. I was discouraged, but when I saw 44+% of the vote, I was amazed. Up 6 percentage points in one week?
I learned much.
I will look at polls, but I will not be controlled by them.
When it comes to Jim Holt, the polls will not be accurate.
I will not give up.
I cannot do everything that even I want to do, but I will work hard until the last moment.
- I’m not supporting Jim Holt because of his popularity or unpopularity.
I’m supporting Jim Holt because he is right on the issues.
No other candidate is able to bring together the TEA party movement, those opposed to illegal immigration, those who support limited government, those who want us to live by our Constitution, those who are pro-life, pro-2nd amendment, and pro-marriage like Jim Holt can. No other candidate has withstood the pressures of lobbyists and party politics without giving in like Jim Holt. His record is evidence of what we’ll get.
Why would we choose anyone else? Jim Holt for U.S. Senate!
To this task. We can see victory. We must pray. We must trust. We must work
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